The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently increased its projections for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Weather Company (which operates The Weather Channel and is owned by IBM) also recently increased its projections. These changes come as we approach the peak of the hurricane season, and as we begin to see news reports of tropical systems developing in the Atlantic Ocean.
Forecasters: Expect an Active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NOAA Predicts 60 Percent Chance of “Above-Normal” Season
On August 9, the NOAA released a scheduled update to its projections from earlier in the year. In the update, the NOAA upwardly revised its previous prediction of a 45 percent chance of an “above normal” season to a 60 percent probability. According to the NOAA, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season now “has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010.”
Previously, the NOAA had predicted a range of 11 to 17 named storms, with between five and nine hurricanes, approximately half of which were likely to fall into the “major” category (Category 3 or above). Currently, the NOAA is predicting 19 named storms with only a slight increase in its projection for major hurricanes.
National Weather Company Echoes NOAA Projections
Shortly after the NOAA released its new estimates for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Weather Company released revised projections that echo the NOAA’s conclusion that the season will be more active than previously expected. The National Weather Company is currently predicting 17 named storms, with nine hurricanes including four that are Category 3 or above.
Factors Contributing to Increases in Named Storm Projections
A variety of factors are contributing to forecasters’ increased projections. According to The Weather Company’s chief meteorologist, “Increases in tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and a quick start to the season have compelled us to move our forecast numbers up.” The lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center identified similar considerations while also noting that the high risk for tropical storms and hurricanes is due in part to that fact that “the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”
According to the NOAA’s data, there were six named storms in the first nine weeks of the season, “which is half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August.” The National Weather Company’s data indicate two additional named storms between August 9 and August 18. Given the higher-than-normal activity we have experienced already, the NOAA’s forecasters now put the chance of a below-normal season at just 10 percent.
Attorneys for Fort Lauderdale Residents with Storm-Damaged Homes
In the wake of a hurricane or tropical storm, homeowners often struggle to receive fair treatment from their insurance companies. If your home sustains damage in a storm, our attorneys can help make sure you receive the coverage to which you are legally entitled. To request a consultation at our offices in Fort Lauderdale, please call (954) 767-6333 or inquire online today.